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The Future of AI, Agentic Commerce, and Payments: Insights from Don Apgar of Javelin Strategy and Research on B2B Vault 

Welcome back to the B2B Vault: The Biz-to-Biz Podcast, hosted by Allen Kopelman and proudly sponsored by Nationwide Payment Systems. Each episode brings together thought leaders in payments, business, and technology. In today’s conversation, Allen welcomes long-time colleague and industry veteran Don Apgar of Javelin Strategy & Research. 

The discussion dives deep into agentic commerce, the rise of AI-driven shopping, social commerce, SEO disruption, fraud detection, and the shifting landscape of payments. Don, who has decades of experience in financial services and merchant acquiring, provides invaluable insights into how AI is reshaping both consumer behavior and merchant operations. 

What Is Agentic Commerce? 

Agentic commerce, often shortened to “AI-driven shopping,” refers to AI tools that can search, compare, and even purchase products on behalf of consumers. Unlike Amazon’s Alexa, which is tied to Amazon’s ecosystem, platforms like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot represent independent agents that can scour the internet for the best deals. 

For example, instead of manually browsing for headphones, a consumer can instruct an AI agent: 

“Find me over-ear noise-canceling headphones with great reviews, under $200, delivered by Tuesday.” 

The AI doesn’t just return search results — it can present curated options or, in some cases, even complete the purchase. This shift raises major questions: 

• Who does the AI truly serve — the consumer, or merchants paying affiliate commissions? 

• How do merchants ensure their products are discoverable in this new ecosystem? 

• What happens when AI makes choices without human approval, potentially increasing returns or disputes? 

Don points out that this is where commerce is heading — and merchants must adapt by optimizing their sites for AI readability, not just human browsing. 

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Social Commerce: The Impulse Buy Revolution 

Another hot topic is social commerce, where platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook integrate “buy now” functionality directly into posts. Unlike traditional e-commerce sites with shopping carts, these platforms thrive on impulse buying. 

Allen notes that Nationwide Payment Systems has already enabled merchants to sell products without a shopping cart — posting items directly to social channels with embedded “buy now” buttons. This has proven especially effective for nonprofits and small retailers looking to expand sales without investing in full e-commerce buildings. 

As Don explains, TikTok set the standard, and Facebook is racing to catch up. Merchants who tap into social commerce can capitalize on influencer networks and instant consumer engagement. 

AI and the Shifting World of SEO 

Both Allen and Don highlight how AI search is already impacting Google traffic. Businesses that once relied on SEO are seeing declines as consumers turn to AI platforms to get answers and recommendations. 

This is sparking a new concept: AIO — Artificial Intelligence Optimization. Instead of writing solely for Google’s algorithm, merchants must now structure their content to be AI-friendly. That means: 

• Including detailed product descriptions (colors, sizes, features, use cases). 

• Building structured FAQs into websites. 

• Providing data-rich information that AI agents can easily interpret. 

Allen notes that Nationwide Payment Systems has already adopted this approach — every blog includes FAQs to boost both SEO and AI discoverability. 

AI in Payments: Fraud Detection, Underwriting, and Routing 

AI isn’t just reshaping commerce; it’s transforming payments behind the scenes. Don and Allen explore several use cases: 

Fraud Detection:   

AI can analyze millions of data points in real time, scoring transactions based on risk. This includes cross-checking IP addresses, emails, and chargeback histories. However, merchants must decide how to act when AI flags a transaction as “50% risky” — void it or take the gamble?

Merchant Underwriting:

AI helps payment processors verify tax IDs, social security numbers, and bank accounts instantly, reducing manual errors and speeding up merchant onboarding. 

Transaction Routing:

AI can optimize where to send transactions based on cost, speed, and approval rates — far beyond what traditional rules-based systems could do. 

Yet, as Don warns, AI hallucinations and misclassifications can cause real harm. He cites an example where Stripe mistakenly categorized a small ferry operator as a “cruise line” and shut down their account with no human appeal process. 

The takeaway? AI must be supervised. While powerful, it’s not ready to be trusted with mission-critical decisions without human oversight. 

Real-World AI Wins and Fails 

The conversation also touches on AI’s real-world successes and shortcomings: 

• Wins: 

• AI SEO tools improving website scores by catching small errors. 

• AI FAQ bots allowing POS users to instantly learn “How to add a new employee” without calling support. 

• AI tools reviewing contracts (like office leases), flagging liabilities, and even drafting negotiation emails. 

• Failures: 

• McDonald’s AI drive-thru mistakenly adding 267 chicken nugget orders before being shut down. 

• Air Canada’s chatbot giving false refund policies, leading to lawsuits. 

• Stripe’s overzealous AI risk review shutting down legitimate small businesses. 

These stories reinforce the theme: AI is still in its “crawl” phase. Businesses should experiment but avoid over-reliance until systems mature. 

The Crawl, Walk, Run Approach to AI 

Both Allen and Don agree businesses must approach AI with a crawl, walk, run mindset. Start with low-risk applications — like SEO audits, chatbots, and internal tools — before integrating AI into critical fraud prevention or underwriting systems. 

AI is advancing fast, but oversight is crucial. Otherwise, mistakes could result in lost customers, lawsuits, or reputational damage. 

Final Thoughts 

From agentic commerce and social selling to AI in fraud prevention and SEO, the payments and retail ecosystems are entering a new era. Don Apgar emphasizes that while AI’s potential is enormous, it comes with risks — and businesses must adopt cautiously. 

Allen closes by reminding merchants and entrepreneurs: experiment with AI, test how it can help your business, but don’t put mission-critical processes on autopilot just yet. 

As he says: “We don’t want Skynet from The Terminator running our payments. Crawl, walk, run.” 

Watch the Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpy67rjch-s 

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B2B Vault Podcast – Sponsored by Nationwide Payment Systems

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